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Demand at Nature Trails Ski Resort has a seasonal pattern. Demand is highest during the winter, as this is the peak ski season. However, there is some ski demand in the spring and even fall months. The summer months can also be busy as visitors often come for summer vacation to go hiking on the mountain trails. The owner of Nature Trails would like to make a forecast for each season of the next year. Total annual demand has been estimated at 4,000 visitors. Given the last two years of historical data, what is the forecast for each season of the next year

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jepessoa

Answer:

Fall            304

Winter    1,974

Spring     716

Summer  1,006

total         4,000      

Explanation:

The historical data is missing, so I looked for a similar question and found this:

Season Year 1 Year 2

Fall          208 243

Winter 1,360 1,574

Spring  509 554

Summer   719 774

total         2,796     3,145

if the forecast for total demand during next year is correct, total demand should increase by [(4,000 / 3,145) - 1] x 100 = 27.186% or 855 more customers.

we must determine the % of total demand per season:

Season Year 1     %                       Year 2            %

Fall          208   7.44%                    243            7.73%

Winter 1,360 48.64%                  1,574          50.05%

Spring  509 18.20%                    554           17.62%  

Summer   719 25.72%                 774          24.60%

total         2,796      100%                    3,145           100%

the average % for each season:

Fall          7.59%            x 4,000 = 303.6 ≈ 304

Winter 49.35%           x 4,000 = 1,974

Spring  17.91%            x 4,000 = 716.4 ≈ 716

Summer  25.15%           x 4,000 = 1,006

total           100%        

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